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Future trends in disability in old age

This research used the latest ONS (2018) population estimates to produce up-to-date projections of disability, and the associated costs for social care, in old age.

These projections built upon earlier work undertaken by the team (PACSim and LSE aggregate long-term care models). The project was a collaboration between the Older People and Frailty (OPFPRU) and Adult Social Care (ASCRU) Policy Research Units.


  • Update projections of future trends in disability in later life.
  • Describe the ways in which these trends might vary under different population assumptions and scenarios for the chance of becoming dependent.
  • Predict the social care costs associated with these trends in disability.

Policy relevance

Findings from this analysis will update current evidence about projections of later life disability and the associated costs, and inform the development of ageing and social care policy.

Delivery timeline

1 January 2020 – 31 March 2020

Associated publications



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