Future trends in disability in old age
This research used the latest ONS (2018) population estimates to produce up-to-date projections of disability, and the associated costs for social care, in old age.
These projections built upon earlier work undertaken by the team (PACSim and LSE aggregate long-term care models). The project was a collaboration between the Older People and Frailty (OPFPRU) and Adult Social Care (ASCRU) Policy Research Units.
- Update projections of future trends in disability in later life.
- Describe the ways in which these trends might vary under different population assumptions and scenarios for the chance of becoming dependent.
- Predict the social care costs associated with these trends in disability.
Findings from this analysis will update current evidence about projections of later life disability and the associated costs, and inform the development of ageing and social care policy.
1 January 2020 – 31 March 2020
Kingston et al (2022) – Projections of dependency and associated social care expenditure for the older population in England to 2038: effect of varying disability progression (Age and Ageing). DOI: 10.1093/ageing/afac158